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Should You Buy To Flip? adidas NMD_R1 “OG” (2017) 

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The adidas NMD_R1 “OG” Release date is Jan. 14, 2016 at a retail price of $170.

When the NMD R1 dropped last year it changed the game for adidas, but not really. What sneakerheads saw was a shoe that popped and to them that meant that it was the reason Adidas regained ground in 2016.

Read this to understand why that wasn’t the case:

Why the adidas Superstar is worth more than the NMD and UltraBoost

I got an inbox again this morning asking if I was going to analyze the NMD “OG”. I put the quotes around OG, because when in the hell did a shoe released a year ago become a retro release or an OG? This is the same shoe and you are restocking, it’s not an OG.

Anyway, these were my responses:

I don’t think it will pop like it did before. I will show my numbers on sales to show that the NMD resale is going to slow due to more than enough pairs being released and Boost going mainstream. Yeezys are barely breaking 600 and Adidas has a fine line to straddle. Consider the NMD XR1 was a general release that was thought to be a shoe that would pop because of the BAPE NMD, but it’s going for about 199-229. It’s a decent return if you don’t have any fees except Paypal. But that is the going rate for the NMD. It’s good for the R1, but the XR1 and OG will cut into that profit because they retail for 150-170/pair. The BAPE popped because they are limited as hell and the Chinese have money to burn. That’s why Hypebeast is so damn big. There is a drawback though. The BAPE has crazy chargebacks happening so sellers have to be careful on the high end and the fakes are bananas.

With this type of response I don’t really need too much more of an intro to this Should You Buy, but we need to get to the question, will the NMD OG pop?

*** I’ve been neglecting to say that I’m writing these for those people who don’t have a hookup or discount. On almost any Jordan Brand/Limited Adidas release if you get a discount you can flip it for a profit.

Since I do 3 checks before my decision I will weight them on a scale of 1-9. The max points on a scale = +3

*** New addition to the rating system: Tier 1: 0-25% = +1    Tier: 26-55% = +2     Tier 3: 56% and up is +3

First check: The Flight Club Check is on deck.  FC has the OG posted in a full size run. A full size run is never a good thing because it implies that people aren’t buying quickly at the price given. However, the price given is Tier 3 status. The price ranges from 550.00 on size 18 to 1,250.00 on other sizes. Some listings are at 800, but every listing has a Tier 3 rating which is a good sign, but the full size run is happening because the restock tomorrow hasn’t taken place and more pairs haven’t been introduced into the market. Tomorrow there will be 20,000 more pairs available. Will this cause a drop? Definitely, but even if I do an adjustment the FC check means this is a definite flip for the first check.

Rating = +3

Second check: My second check is always on eBay. The eBay Check is now a better measuring stick for the analysis. This is why, they have actual sold listing data and that allows for an average price. More important, it shows the market for the immediate vs the long term which most people flipping can’t do. FC can sit on a shoe until it grows in value, the guys who will buy this joint tomorrow will be right on the Bay. Here is the price of sold shoes as of 1/13/2017:

January 13 – 350

January 12 – 342.12

January 12 – 268.22

January 11 – 409.99

January 9 – 500.00

When we do the average price 1870.33/5 = 374.07 This moves the needle way down on the immediate return on the NMD OG. If I did an average of the FC price and the eBay price I would still be at a Tier 3. At 170 plus tax the shoe is right at 182.00. 375 listing price garners a 13% fee of 48.75 +15 shipping = 63.75. So 182.00 becomes 245.75 all in. That’s a profit of 129.25 on the NMD OG. In my intro I said it wouldn’t pop like it did before, and I don’t think it will hit those FC numbers, but at 129.95 on your 245.75 that’s a ROI of 52.88% Not quite Tier 3, but very, very close.

Rating = +3

Third check: My third check is now a combination of Twitter hype, launch locators and StockX. This is a limited release so Adidas is making sure to keep the hype high by doing so. You won’t be able to swoop into a Footaction of Footlocker and cop. StockX has the OG  https://stockx.com/adidas-nmd-core-black-lush-red When you click to sell this is the current offer: HIGHEST BID: $400 | LOWEST ASK: $450 The ask is the seller’s price and the bid is obvious. Other sellers are currently asking up to 1000.00 gunning for that FC status. This again makes the NMD OG a solid release for the flip. 

Rating = +3

My final ruling: +9 is my overall rating. This is a very hesitant +9. As I said above the NMD is currently in stock in a variety of colorways and sneakerheads are getting a lot more patient with their dollars. Everyone is getting a lot more patient. With multiple colorways of UltraBoost and NMDs still in stores on GR, this may be a shoe that you want to collect your Tier 2/3 return quickly at 350-450 bucks, because this market is shifting very fast now and that +9 could end up being a +1 if adidas sees the limited response and decides to do a GR release which I’ve heard is actually in the works.

Good luck and Stay Motivated

Click to BUY The NMD on eBay