photo of the ARCH Allen Merlot by Know Definition https://knowdefinition.com/
The picture above is of one of my shoes I designed and sold. The shoe was named The Allen. I released it in 2012. I sold out of them although they were poorly constructed. I didn’t stick with this shoe for long. At the time I was making what I thought was really good money so I designed a lot of different styles, although it was best to stick with one style and prove that I could consistently sell it. Had I made this shoe this year the result could have been much different. Things have changed in the sneaker world and while it seems that hype is dominating the culture, that isn’t the case. There is more opportunity than ever. Let me explain why. One of my favorite people, Stephen Green, needed a respite from the culture shock of being in the bible belt so he hit me on Twitter yesterday with this statement:
Hey @archbyccb I think we have hit peak hypebeast levels in the sneaker world…. Seeing anything Supreme literally makes me sick to my stomach and gives me a headache from all the constant eye rolling. Please tell me why there's a light at the end of the tunnel for sneakerheads. pic.twitter.com/z976iJc13k
— Stephen Green (@PDXStephenG) October 7, 2019
Now that you’ve laughed a bit at the gif, let’s get to why I think the frustration with Supreme is a good thing. I’m not dissing Supreme, that would be stupid. It’s a multi-million dollar brand, with longevity. Supreme is finally leveling/cooling off for a number of reasons, this isn’t shade. Supreme causes an eye roll now because it feels as if the brand is using irreverence to see how far they can push “Fans” of the brand, but more important, the company was invested into by a business that is completely against what the brand started out as:
Supreme | Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj | Netflix: Analyzing, Destroying & Creating Hype
What does this have to do with my old sneaker designs being made 7 years too soon?
People who consider themselves of the culture who are burned out on Supreme, like Stephen, are looking at how superficial sneaker culture seems to have become. They are also looking at how limited drops no longer sell out immediately. Not even a product with the legendary red box logo is safe from sitting on shelves. I mean if an item isn’t extremely limited it sits. When I say extremely I mean less than 200 pieces. Anything over this doesn’t really catch on and sell through anymore and this is what Stephen is saying. We are at peak Hype, but that’s a good thing because now a product has to reach the consumer on its own merit. 7 years ago I had a great idea. Today that great idea could get funded. Let’s get back to the post.
This is one of the best times to be a fan of sneaker culture. It sucks for me because of the unintentional reason sneaker hype is dying:
In the article above I discuss what StockX has done to the sneaker websites business model and affiliate sales. StockX has also democratized resale which has hurt the hype around certain products and invited people in who know nothing at all about the product. A re-seller doesn’t have to love the culture and know about the culture. I just think when a re-seller is a part of the culture they care about the process of flipping and won’t destroy the market (that’s another discussion).
Are there still certain things that hit absurd numbers in resale? Of course, but this isn’t as often as it was just two years ago. You used to be able to hit a regular sneaker store and flip stuff, it’s a wrap on that, and this also takes us too far ahead.
Stephen shouldn’t worry because there is a light at the end of the tunnel and it’s fairly bright and I feel that there is more opportunity than ever for those of us who love the culture:
- The opportunity for small brands to actually compete: I took the time today to browse through my listing of new sneaker companies. I’m willing to bet that most of the people who follow more popular blogs may not have heard of these companies, or maybe they have. Here is a list, Coddi, Clearweather, No.One, ohw?, Coloquy, Sully Wong, Greats Brand, York Athletics, NOBULL, Cortica Footwear, Axel Arigato, SWIMS… Chris Dixon. I can keep going, but you get the picture. Nike decided to get to their consumer directly. Crowdfunding became a way to turn your idea into reality. Social media created a chance for your idea to get recognized. Now more than ever an idea like I had with my shoe companies isn’t far-fetched. It’s expected.
- The potential for established brands to place real effort into marketing basketball for one of the biggest seasons in recent NBA history: Zion is in the league. The West is no longer one team beating up the rest of the conference. The super team concept is dead and we are back to super duos; which means NBA Jams should return this year. The East has the reigning MVP and no clear cut favorite. It’s Showtime again in L.A. for both teams. Zion is in the league. What I hope will happen is that brands will not rely on the momentum of the NBA to drive footwear sales. It’s already proven that the game doesn’t resonate with Americans in the same way so you’re not going to sell sneakers just because some NBA guy is wearing them. There are going to have to be real campaigns around the product. With all of the different storylines available to marketing teams, I expect some very good storytelling. If it happens we all win. If it doesn’t, well I just hope it does.
- Resale is dead at retail: Above I shared a post on the unintentional ramifications of 3rd party. I should have shared the following post because if you’re a regular person who doesn’t live near an outlet or a urban account struggling to sell kicks, you aren’t able to resale unless it’s a release like a Jordan 1 Satin. Resale is officially dead which means that you can get almost every drop that comes out. The only kicks you can’t get are the “hyped” shoes, but that means you’re shopping for something that is crazy limited. Jordans don’t sell out anymore. Yeezy doesn’t sell out anymore. There are 4 different colors of Pharrells sitting in House of Hoops. This is a great time to be a collector because StockX has made it so that people hoping to sit on kicks now are screwed. Nike restocks every other month and if push comes to shove, you can drop a few extra dollars and get whatever you’re looking for. Resale is dead out of retail: https://arch-usa.com/the-democratization-of-sneaker-resale/
- Women are finally gaining some ground in the industry: For the first time I copped a pair of shoes designed by a woman for a campaign about women’s empowerment (Shoutout Jazerai!). The LeBron HFR is designed by women. Dudes may be snatching most of the kicks made for women, but we are no longer in a time where brands are shrinking and pinking. Women are also in some powerful positions at brands. Is it enough? Not yet. The balance isn’t there, but if you want to pickup a pair of kicks designed by a woman you can do that today, much faster than you could last year.
- Influencers aren’t simply securing the bag anymore: The last few years made some YouTubers and IG people seem worthy of getting collabs with brands. Sneaker companies are now realizing that all influencers aren’t created equally. A person with a small following of 1000 is just as capable of rocking with a brand as a person with 100,000 followers. Brands are realizing that influence is about the quality of the interaction not just the likes on a picture. Brands aren’t just dropping dollars in people’s laps like Saucony did a year ago with their Originators series. Brands are becoming a bit more insightful which is making for better collabs altogether.
- Hype still dominates, but real, informative sneaker sites are starting to shine: This one is all about me. I reached out to a number of websites years ago before I decided to turn ARCH into a sneaker CNN. I looked at Complex and SoleCollector and other sites as the measuring stick. In the last year I’ve become just as influential where it matters the most, inside of the brands. More important, regular people are subscribing and visiting the site more often. A year ago my website traffic hovered around 5,000 visitors a month. It’s twice that and growing which tells me that there is a more mature audience and not just kids looking for hype. Kids and old heads want better info. That should inspire everyone.
- Supreme and Yeezy are so mainstream that they are regular… which is actually a good thing: The average sale price for a pair of Yeezy 350 V2 on 15,000+ sales is 265. That’s only 20 dollars above retail for a Yeezy. The Air Jordan 14 Retro Supreme at 2400 sales has an average price of 300.00 dollars. That’s only 25 dollars more than the retail of 250. These aren’t isolated instances. Kanye said everyone who wanted a pair of Yeezy would get a pair and that’s happened. The Supreme Brick has been sold only 215 times on StockX. People aren’t buying into the hype in the same way. Think about this, Just Don made a Converse basketball shoe and it’s showing up in Nike Clearance Stores for 59.99. Some stuff will always draw Cactus Jack prices, but in general those Saturday morning lines are gone and GR retros are available and restocking often.
- The Air Jordan 1 Small Sizes Problem is getting close to the end of its cycle: It’s important that you understand where this is coming from because it is a paradox. In 2013-2015 there was a demand for GS Jordan Retros. In response Nike increased sizing on GS sizing and introduced GG and BG as sizing for kid’s shoes. This moved the size in kid’s up to 9.5Y on certain models. The reason for this was because the Asian market was buying Jordan Retros at a ridiculous resale rate. Jordan began overproducing models and around 2016 the resale of GS shoes slowed considerably and today if it isn’t a Jordan 1, Jordan Retros in kid’s sizes are sitting everywhere. The Air Jordan 1 Hype started in 2017. The Jordan 1 is now selling in the Mid and Low at resale prices on small sizes 3.5Y to 5.5Y and in Men’s 7.5 to 9.5. We are entering 2020 soon and I see the cycle coming to an end for that model.Which is a good thing because Jordan Brand is killing an incredible shoe. I understand that it is the Chuck Taylor for JB, but it needs to go into the vault for a while.
- Urban Hiking is becoming a thing: Recently I began looking at the expansion of Outdoor brands into new customer segments based on the concept of discovering your own city. This just so happened to coincide with an increased push by Outdoor brands like Merrell and Columbia into athletic footwear. A space that Timberland has held for years appears to be opening up and what could happen is better constructed shoes from non-traditional brands with non-traditional customers. This means more job opportunities for people of color. While it isn’t proven that companies will hire Blacks and Browns to gain a better understanding of the market, the likelihood is there. Anytime a new segment comes to life there are positions that become available in marketing, supply chain and design. If you’re a designer you should be building a portfolio for Urban Hiking.
- If you have a dream that involves sneakers, now is the time to make it happen and get paid: Super Heroic, GOAT, StockX, Rockets of Awesome, The NTWRK didn’t exist just 4 years ago. They are all now multi-million dollar companies. Hypebeast, a blog, IPO’d in China. Highsnobiety, a blog, netted a 2 million dollar investment. Pyer Moss, a Black owned brand, and PSNY, a minority owned brand, are considered just as influential as some longtime fashion houses. Now is the time to dream and dream big. Everyone has direct access to company’s like Maker’s Row. You can get manufacturing done on a small scale in footwear and apparel. We Are Underdogs is taking design dreams and creating real sneakers!!!! PENSOLE is becoming an art institute and was grabbed an investment that should have been much more because there are amazing things happening in that place and they are expanding into high schools and HBCUs!!! This is the time to dream big. This is the best time in the history of sneakers. Diversity is now on the table and the playing field is more level than its ever been. If that isn’t a reason to forget the hype and get excited, I really can’t help you… now bookmark this and share it with 100 people (I want one of those investments, lol).
