Originally posted on Housakicks
What I’m about to say in the next couple of paragraphs is entirely based on my own interpretation based on past observations and my background in mathematics. Jordan Brand dropped the Jordan 11 Win Like 96 incognito a few days ago in select locations. It was to be expected because the same thing was done with its predecessor, the Jordan 11 Win Like 82. I was at my local mall a week and half ago and an older gentleman was inquiring about the Win Like 96; he was very concerned about not securing a pair. I chuckled a bit and realized that he wasn’t aware that things have changed; he witnessed the madness of the Jordan 11 Concord and probably thought the same thing will happen with the Win Like 96 model. It has literally been 6 years since the Concord’s frenzy and things have drastically changed. Will the Air Jordan 11 be very hard to get?
First let’s consider how many pairs of Jordan 11 retros were approximately released every year during the Christmas season.
I’ll assume a linear growth here and my origin will be the year 2014 which coincides with the Legend Blue 11. With that said, what I need to find now is a regression line so I can make my prediction. My two reference data points are going to be centered around the year 2014 and 2015-Legend Blue 11 (2014,963242) and Jordan 11 72-10(2015,1073149)
I can use my TI-83 calculator or manually find the slope ( rate of change of the number of 11’s produced with respect to time).
Here is what I found,
m=(slope=rate of change)=109,907 and my starting number is 963242 ( from the 2014 legend blue ) number of pairs produced. So our regression line equation will be :
Jordan 11= 109,907 x (t=number of years since 2014)+ 963242
Let’s also consider how many pairs of the Jordan 11 Win Like 82 were dropped. I wrote a post about it a couple of weeks ago stating that several pairs were still sitting in stores and the link below gives you more details. With that said I will use the equation above to estimate the number of Jordan 11 Win Like 82 produced.
Jordan 11 Win Like 82= 109,907 x (3=number of years since 2014)+963242=1,292,963 pairs
So given the information above, we can make a bold prediction of how many pairs of the “Win Like 96” were produced. Since we are still in 2017 I’ll assume based on the Linear Model that the number of pairs of the Air jordan 11 Win Like 96 will be the same as the number of pairs of the “Win Like 82” model, hence 1,292,963 pairs or roughly 1,300,000 pairs.
Ladies and gentlemen, you will not have a hard time securing a pair so I will not recommend paying more than retail for these; if you’re going to pay extra , do not pay more than $20 above retail. Hopefully this helps you make a better purchasing decision comes December 12th.