Explore and buy the Nike Air Jordan 4 Retro OG ‘Bred’. Stay a step ahead of the latest sneaker launches and drops.
Source: Nike Air Jordan 4 Retro OG ‘Bred’ Release Date
There is a curious transition taking place and marketing teams are missing the boat completely. The proof is in the number of Jordan Retros that sit on shelves. What is the problem? In my book Nike’s Consumer Direct Offense, Amazon and StockX: The Disruption of Sneaker Retail, I discuss in detail and even include a quote from a 40 something. I made it a point to give the quote and the discussion an entire chapter. The sneaker culture and the history that has driven the explosive growth of footwear sales and the shift from dress shoes and Sebagos to hoops shoes and trainers as fashion happened with the birth and Golden Age of Hip-Hop. This is important because outside of a few basketball models that are retros, even the once bullet proof Nike is stumbling.
Marketing needs to realize that there are about 100,000 plus 30-50 Somethings who aren’t being shown any love in marketing. Those 30-50 Somethings have more of a collection than most of these kids. More important, they have it because they remember and the stories resonate. This segment also has money and their kids are getting older and preparing for college or gone to college. They are adding sneaker collecting to their hobbies, but they aren’t being shown any love. What does that have to do with the Retro 4? Everything.
Kids don’t know who Buggin’ Out is. They barely know who Mars Blackmon is. This isn’t 5 years ago when eSports and streaming video and trying to become an internet star wasn’t a thing. This is now and just because Nike Air has finally returned to the heel of the Bred 4 it doesn’t mean that this shoe will be golden, right? Let’s get to it. Recent drops from Jordan Brand:
Air Jordan 13 Cap & Gown = below retail
Air Jordan 1 Crimson Tint = retail and slightly above
Air Jordan 1 Sail/University Red = below retail except smaller sizes
Air Jordan 3 Tinker (Air Max 1) = way below retail
Air Jordan 13 Atmosphere Grey = way below retail
This isn’t a clear picture. The Retro 1 is an extremely hot shoe for the Chinese market, but sizes above 10 are sitting. The three non-1s are all going to hit the markdown aisle soon. What does this mean for the Retro 4? Should You Buy To Flip?
*** I’ve been neglecting to say that I’m writing these for those people who don’t have a hookup or discount.
Since I do 3 checks before my decision I will weight them on a scale of 1-9. The max points on a scale = +3
*** New addition to the rating system: Tier 1: 0-25% = +1 Tier 2: 26-55% = +2 Tier 3: 56% and up is +3 (These additions are in regard to the ROI)
Retail: 200 + tax = 215.00
The Jordan 4 Bred 2019 is on FC at an average price of 350. There have been several price drops on some sizes and as we move closer to the day of release the price will drop even more. Still at 350.00 there is considerable room to turn a profit.
350-215 = 135.00 That’s a whopping 62% return on FC, but this is early and that’s FC. Fligh Club will always garner between 50-100 dollars higher than an individual seller on eBay, my second check. That means I expect eBay to be at the high end 300.00 and at the low end 250.00. That’s a prediction of 275.00 for eBay. Right now though, my FC check is a winner at Tier 3.
Rating = +3
Second check: Let’s jump into the eBay Check. You can use this link to visit the eBay page. There are currently (4/30/2019) 150 listings. If you used my link to my book above, in the book my partner Tayib and I did a year long experiment in 3rd party resale. I used StockX and Tayib used eBay and Kixify as sales platforms. I raise this point because eBay used to be the place to sell early release shoes. Today there are only 150 pair available when you use the phrase Air Jordan 4 Retro Black Cement. There are 657 pair when you use the search words Air Jordan 4 Retro Bred 2019. That still isn’t a lot in early release, but it gives us a larger sample size so we will stick with this one. This listing includes kids and I will only check men’s but so far 268 pair sold. That’s less than half of the listings which I have to take into consideration. I always take the average of the first 5 shoes without ‘offers accepted’ or Pre-Orders.
4/29/2019 = 299.99
4/29/2019 = 285.00
4/28/2019 = 285.00
4/28/2019 = 300.00
4/28/2019 = 285.00
Total: 1454.99/ 5 = 291.00 This is above my prediction and average of 275 for eBay. This should make everyone excited, but let’s check again. I can usually pull the average price quickly from the first few sold items. There are so many pre-orders and “offers accepted” that this price is higher because the shoe is selling, but there aren’t any sales for April 30th. More important when I look at eBay the price isn’t 215 for the Retro 4. You have to add in eBay fees of 12.75%. If the average price is 291 add those fees to the cost of the shoe and we are at 37.10 for fees. If there is free shipping add another 10 bucks. That’s 47.10 + 215 = 262.10 At 262.10 if the price holds on eBay then you would have a 28.90 profit which is a 10.72% profit via eBay. eBay is a win, but not as good as Flight Club. That’s a Tier 1 ROI.
Rating = +1
Third check: My final check is usually a Twitter check to gauge interest, but sometimes you have to ask yourself if that extra minute is really worth the time… Yep it is The Twitter search is really hot right now which bodes well for retailers… on second thought if you scroll through that link the majority of the discussion is from retailers and online sites. Instagram is a better gauge of interest from young consumers, but instead I will move to the StockX check because of the book of course and because we can actually see how many have sold.
As expected StockX has completely crushed eBay in sales 3,695 pair sold. This is on par with the research in our book on the comparison between eBay and StockX. That doesn’t help us see if the shoe is worth it though. What helps us is the average price sold: 269.00
Now we already know what the fees are on eBay. The fees on StockX at the lowest level are 11%. My taxes in Memphis are 9.25%. This means that 215 dollar pricepoint I’ve used throughout the post… is actually 218.50 for me. Add in the fees on 269 at 29.59 and my total cost on this shoe is 239.41. That wouldn’t be bad at all if I didn’t factor in my time and running around to scoop up my pairs. That’s a profit of 29.59. I pick up 10 pair and that’s a solid day with a 12.36% profit at Tier 1.
Rating = +1
Now, from my time on StockX I know that as the release date moves closer the shoe will drop considerably. That profit margin will be wiped out.
My final ruling: Right now we are at a +5 out of 9 on our SYBTF scale. That’s not bad, but this is no longer the market to sit on shoes and hold like a stock. Nike is now notorious for restocking on popular models that actually sell out. This means that while the shoe has some profit built in right now, I don’t think it will be a flip on release day and I think you only have a short window after the first wave of dropped prices hit to get something. Should You Buy To Flip?
Early? Yep
Day of? Nope
Week After? Just like the 5 out of 9, maybe.
Hold til three months from now? Yep
Retailers should have a great weekend though.