Nike is back to the OG 1… Well, not exactly the OG 1, more like the “What The” 1. The Top 3 Air Jordan 1 captures each of the most popular releases of the classic shoe that started it all. Secretly, I’m hoping for the failure of this shoe so I’m a bit biased. I guess the idea of taking the Jordan Brand line and bastardizing an icon in this way stems from the one thousand different styles of the Retro 1 that don’t sell at all, or are overpriced, or take up all of the wall space in FootLocker. It doesn’t quite make sense to do this in a year where you dropped the Chicago, Banned and Shattered to take the Royal and mix it with the Chicago and Banned. Why not just drop the Royal or the Shadow?Nike is failing to realize we are in a less is more phase and this shoe is over the top. Maybe it’s just me being bitter, or maybe not… Let’s get to it.
Since I do 3 checks before my decision I will weight them on a scale of 1-9. The max points on a scale = +3
*** New addition to the rating system: 0-25% = +1 26-55% = +2 56% and up is +3
First check: The Flight Club Check is on deck. As much as I hate the fact that this shoe is happening, the reality is FC has a full size run up at 375.00 to 400.00 bucks. I always drop the price on these, but I’m going even farther on my drop. I’m reducing the resale to 275.00. I haven’t checked any other sources yet, but I don’t see this shoe breaking 300 and staying there. In a year where there are still Banned, Chicago and Shattered Backboards still available on FC in full size runs. The Home SB is higher (Banned has a full size run at 350, Black Toe is at 275 and Shattered is 300), this compilation shoe is not, I repeat not going to go above 275. This may be the most biased SYBTF I’ve done, but this is a projection and I can be wrong, but I don’t think I will be. The Retro 1 is always a good pick up though because it is priced right. Even if I don’t think it will pop to 350, my reduction to 275 leaves this price breakdown ROI:
Retail: 160.00 + tax = 172.00
Fees: 13% at a generous 275.00 sold price = 35.75
Shipping Fees = 15.00
Total cost of the shoe (If you don’t get a discount) = 222.75
I’m going to say that the shoe will hold steady at 275. That means a 52.25 profit. Which is a 23% ROI. That doesn’t place it in Tier 2 for ROI so I’ve giving it a +1 for profit but I refuse to give it an additional +1 based on desire. I just can’t do it. FC Rating is…
Rating = +1
Second check: My second check is always on eBay. The eBay Check is always easier to make an estimation. Let’s check the last five sold listings:
November 25th – 250.00
November 25th – 300.00
November 25th – 308.00
November 24th – 300.00
November 22nd – 300.00
When we do the average price 1458/5 = 291.60. This is not far away from my FC price of 275.00. I’m slightly lower than the market, but if the dates are an indication the most recent sale at 250 just shifted the resale price towards where I think it will remain. Now that we are close and the True Blue 3 is sitting at retail, people will wait. There hasn’t been a sale on the 26th yet; maybe tonight, but not yet, so I can’t really dig deeper. I will say this, I looked ahead for Check 3 and I just recognized that the release calendar locator for FootLocker and FootAction is extensive. The stores may only get 12 pair or 24 pair, but damn near every store has them, but that doesn’t cover my eBay check which at 291 places the Retro 1 into Tier 2. So I will give the shoe a
Rating = +2
Third check: My third check is now a combination of Twitter hype, launch locators and StockX. StockX has the Top 3 rolling right now. https://stockx.com/air-jordan-1-retro-top-3?children=f69a7e78-fdd6-4640-b75f-ab3e302edef7 the average sold price is right at 275, but this is the 26th. On Cyber Monday, when the web becomes aware of the total pairs available I don’t think 275 holds on StockX. Look at these maps.
This is not as limited as even I once thought it would be. Maybe it’s time to focus on adidas. Then again, everything adidas is doing is limited. They are dropping a series of UltraBoost and NMDs at retail, but those won’t pop either. I’m remaining at a lower rating for the Top 3.
Rating = +1
My final ruling: +4 which is average. Will you lose with the Top 3? No. That 160 pricepoint leaves a lot of room and people are definitely comfortable paying 250-300 for the shoe, but this could be an instance where you have to consider a win if you can get a 5-10% return on your time. Am I saying that the price will drop to 225? Yes. Remember though, I just don’t like the idea of this shoe. I want it to fail so they won’t screw up the 3/4 or 5. My petty is strong. If I was a Jedi my name would be Petty Vader, or Petty Wan Kinobi, or Petty Skywalker. I know that was wack, but you get the point.