The Nike LeBron XXI: Two Years of Data Delivers a Discussion on a Difficult Nike Basketball Category

The LeBron XXI evolves the low-cut profile of the LeBron XX with premium lightweight materials modeled after the properties of an oyster shell. The shoe is built to serve the next generation and is inspired by LeBron’s daughter, Zhuri.

The latest LeBron is arriving for the King’s 21st season. The sneaker isn’t the impressive aspect; the athlete is. Not many athletes are competing this late into their careers and doing so at a ridiculously high level. LeBron carried the Lakers into the post-season in the 2022-23 year and appeared just as explosive as he was at the start of his career. Nike continued the rollout of LeBron’s sneakers with a look consistent with the trend of Nike Basketball in a post Kobe world. The low-cut look wasn’t an unfamiliar style for LeBron, every year Nike has delivered a LeBron and a LeBron low version as well as a Soldier and a Witness (making LeBron the player with the most models… and this also comes into play with full-priced sell through) but the 20 looked so much like a Kobe, my initial thoughts were that the sneaker could revitalize the Nike Basketball segment. I was right at first, but as Nike showed that the model would have a general release schedule with multiple colors dropping continuously, my thoughts on recapturing the moment for Nike Basketball were replaced with the reality of the market.

From Early Gem to Coal

The most wearable LeBron in the history of the line was like a rocket coming out of the gate, but that quickly changed. A quick explanation of this data: Utilizing resale as an indicator of brand heat and a micro-set of data from StockX, sales with dates from September 2021 to September 2023 features every style of LeBron released or available during this time (not just the XX). This is important because the sheer number of styles Nike dropped paints a vivid picture of why the Lebron XX1 will follow the same pattern if Nike holds true to form. From the release of the Violet Frost XX to the final drop for the LeBron XX, the Mimi Plange colorway, any brand, retailer or resale platform can begin to recognize the importance of a pull vs push strategy especially when it comes to a premium priced, 200-dollar flagship sneaker.

Why was excitement high at the onset? One retailer placed the sneaker out early because it didn’t show a release date. On 9-15-2022, the first sale of the early pair saw the $200 dollar SRP get shattered as anticipation was high. Nike at first glance seemed to be executing a controlled strategy perfectly. At least I thought this was the case when I first discovered the LeBron XX Violet Frost on the shelves early.  Not many pairs were on the third-party market. The first pair had a resale price of $317.59 after fees. Two pair had been purchased and only two pair were available on the StockX site after getting a VIP representative to list the model. Almost immediately after the sneakers were listed other pairs showed up on the platform hinting at a trend which has shaped resale, the second pair sold on 9-21-2022 at $224.77 after fees.

The Trend of the XX and what to expect from the XX1

As I mentioned, the first sale was exciting, but resale as an indicator only works if pairs of sneakers aren’t entering the market via wholesale. If the first two pair listed were purchased from a retail outlet early, where were the other pairs listing on StockX coming from? The sneakers weren’t at Nike stores (Factory, Unite, Employee or Clearance) so the pairs had to be coming from retailers with accounts or sellers were taking losses on the sneakers. The second sneaker remained listed at $350 but had to be adjusted down as other sellers dropped the price back closer to the actual SRP. There are a variety of reasons this could have happened, but considering the sneaker didn’t have a release date until September 29th the shoe should have remained much higher. One of the reasons the price dropped is that Nike over the last few years will have a three colorway drop strategy. Three of a particular signature sneaker will hit stores and be dedicated to different partners. Foot Locker may get the Miami Heat color; Finish Line may get the Violet Frost and other partners possibly get the Time Machine colors. These were the first few colors released for the LeBron XX and from October to December over a 6-week period, they all arrived back-to-back the customer was left with very little time to consider Nike Basketball because Jordan Brand had its own releases including the new Luka and other Nike Basketball sneakers which cost a fraction of the 200 dollar SRP. This was compounded by the following sneakers available solely from the LeBron line (some of these sneakers were still in the marketplace and some were being released at the same time as the XX):

The idea of a pull strategy being in place was gone for the XX. A pull strategy is when a brand utilizes scarcity and controlled release of inventory to keep the consumer engaged in interested in each drop helping to create full price sell through. A smart company has to balance inventory and demand or the market sinks into promotions to clear inventory. If all of these sneakers were selling as the rollout of the XX took place, the natural progression is a decline in the average sold price. From September 21 to September 23 using this microset of data, 178 pair of LeBron’s were sold when thousands of pairs were readily available. These LeBron models include the new NXXT that comes in at 160.00. The average sold price of the 178 pair of sneakers: $25,618.26 at an average of $143.12. None of the models sold include the least expensive LeBrons, the Solder or Witness. These models don’t generate a lot of interest on third-party sites like StockX.

What Does this Mean for the LeBron XX1

The last sneaker to release for the LeBron XX was the 250-dollar Mimi Plange version. This sneaker appeared at Nike doors earlier than the listed release date and no one took a chance on buying it to flip. There have been 35 sales at an average of $195 a pair, 22% off from the retail price. There are countless versions of the Xx still in the marketplace along with the Witness version of LeBrons and NXXT colors. Moving away from an isolated data set in the LeBron signature series also available from Nike Basketball are the GT Cut 2, GT Jump 2, Ja 1, Luka 2, Cosmic Unity 3, KD 3, KD 16, Zoom Freak 5 in a over 5 colors, Jordan 38, Jordan Tatum 1 and the upcoming Devin Booker signature series. Nike and Jordan Basketball will collapse retail and the brand under the weight of endless releases removing any FOMO around Nike products. When the XX dropped there were a few sold above retail and some excitement around the new look to LeBron’s flagship. Today a quick visit to StockX shows the LeBron XX1 Purple Rain with a release date in October has an average sold price of $156 bucks on 40 pair sold. The XX1 could at least help retail if the model isn’t delivered in the same manner over the next 8 weeks, but it seems that Nike no longer had the discipline to nurture their market and that’s a shame; because as Nike goes in the basketball category, every brand follows.