Video Breakdown:
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:35 Stadium Goods
- 3:45 StockX & eBay
- 6:25 Disruptions Created Resale
- 10:45 OGs Get Diminished
- 12:25 The Spikes Lied
- 13:55 UGG is Top 10
- 15:55 Top 20 Sold on StockX
- 18:55 Buyers Have Options
- 21:10 The Greater Fool
- 24:46 The Big Reset
- 24:10 Wrap-Up
eBay purchased SneakerCon and attempted to ramp up their involvement in sneaker culture. Speaking with several sneaker industry consultants who all found themselves ghosted by eBay’s sneaker GM and team it is clear that sneaker resale of premium and extremely limited footwear dominated the business plans of eBay. Outside consultants with eBay attempted to move eBay towards a more controlled form of sneaker resale rooted in a combination of what the site owned, arbitrage and the ability to mimic retail. The pitches to eBay Sneakers were taken and placed in action with various websites and influencers, but eBay never understood the concept.
Stadium Goods was rocking. The resale platform was acquired by Farfetch and opened stores over the years. Consultants attempted to work with the business and delivered strategies offered to eBay, but the team was doing well at the time and couldn’t see the endgame. In 2021, Stadium Goods had physical stores in New York City, Los Angeles, Miami, Chicago and Boston. Stadium Goods now has 2 stores. 1 retail and 1 drop off in New York.
StockX is quietly laying off employees in what I think is an adjustment to show momentum heading into a potential IPO. They also implemented an Xpress Ship concept which speeds up the authentication process that causes resale sites to be slower and lose customers. eBay was a frontrunner in resale for years because there weren’t layers. Instead of capitalizing on many aspects which made eBay better, they copied StockX and added in authenticating slowing the sales process. They also focused a lot of energy into trying to capture sneaker culture which has devolved into what a person can sell vs what a person really loves about sneakers.
Third party platforms allowed the disruptive Covid bump to shape their businesses although I’ve stated continuously that sneaker resale and retail are actually landing back to where it was in the 2010s. Sneaker resale has always been slowing down. There were a number of disruptions which created temporary spikes:
- eBay kicking off power sellers and those sellers moving to Amazon – 2010
- Amazon removing Seller Central Requirements and allowing a flood of counterfeits on their platform – 2013
- Nike flooding the market with Jordan Brand and the rise of adidas – 2015
- The introduction of StockX, GOAT and Grailed – 2016
- Nike introducing 270, React, TurboX, 360 Flyknit and Jordan Remastered – 2017
- No fees by eBay – 2019
- Covid – 2020
- Supply chain issues – 2021
These events created situations where old buyers were disrupted (let’s go with gangster terminology – OGs and mafia types who controlled the market were diminished), and new buyers reduced inventory available creating a false demand (new money entered the marketplace from all of the new resellers). Combine this with supply chain issues in 2021 and the spikes can be compared to a drug dealer giving product away to increase demand and then the corporations flooding the market with dope (supply chains opened). The spikes were completely against the slowdown happening that was verifiable via data. When considering that the spikes also tended to be buyers buying from buyers, once consumers began to see the promotional market at sneaker retail, they became more patient. Nike price increases accelerated a decrease in demand, but the redundancy in the market was important.
What does the UGG Slipper have to do with all of this? In StockX’s most recent monthly report, UGG has replaced Nike as a top 10 darling in resale. Note I didn’t say overtook Nike. Nike still dominates the top 100 sneakers sold on StockX. The top 10 – 20 of sneaker sales has always been a mix of Yeezy slides and Nike/Jordan kicks until December 2023. During the holiday season an interesting trend began which speaks more towards Nike sneakers being readily available and brands like Crocs and UGGs maintaining better control over their supply chains increasing demand.
Does this mean all Nike has to do is slow production and the consumer will begin to have FOMO once again as it relates to Nike? I don’t think so. What this push by UGG does show is buyers have more than enough Dunks and Jordan 1s they have accumulated and are looking towards comfort first. It doesn’t mean Nike shoes aren’t selling. On the contrary they are moving very well. There isn’t a lot of resale value, so third-party sites have settled into looking like retail as it relates to sneakers.
Notice the list and the only standout in the top 20 for Nike is the Kobe Reverse Grinch. A shoe that was limited and most people who bought them, kept them which made the price premium. Take a closer look at the Nike Dunk Cacao at 12 and you find that a site like StockX has an incorrect number in the retail price. This establishes that Nike’s price increases are definitely having an effect on resale. The Dunk Cacao retails at $115. The $17 dollar premium shown by StockX isn’t a premium at all because of fees. The Dunk isn’t an arbitrage sneaker… it’s one of the few shoes hardly on sale. Nike’s price increases haven’t slowed the sell through of their sneakers, but it has removed any profit. Which takes this discussion full circle.
Stadium Goods built their business on consignment with Dunks and Jordans. As buyers began to be more thoughtful and look towards other brands like New Balance and Saucony, fans had options. Those brands intentionally make fewer sneakers than Nike because they can’t manage the inventory increase if the market shifts. This means they have a resale value, but not many of the sneakers actually sell in resale. A shoe like the Saucony JaeTips Remember Those Who Fronted has a total of 515 sales over a 12-month period on StockX. The buyers are more than likely buyers buying from buyers and elevating the price. The abundance of Jordan 1s in inventory became less valuable. Buyers stopped buying from buyers and the greater fool theory became the standard. Stadium Goods had to close locations.
The consumer has been trained throughout 2023 that patience is a virtue which means eBay’s overinvestment into sneaker culture is problematic. StockX is best suited to weather the changes because they’ve been making an effort to address their deficiencies (women’s footwear offerings, under 100 marketing, advertising during sporting events). Stadium Goods and resale sites not able to interact with retailers are in a difficult position. GOAT is connected to Foot Locker and Flight Club which could be a saving grace, although Foot Locker had to close Atmos, which is another story.
The UGG Tasman Slipper isn’t a harbinger as much as it is verification that the consumer is opening up to other footwear styles. Sneaker resale has always been closely aligned with retail. I’ve been preaching this for years. Now it’s clearer, right?
