Since I’ve moved away from “Should You Buy to Flip?” I’ve had to be a lot more creative in building analysis of footwear releases. Resell is all but dead except for limited release footwear. An analysis of GR shoes allows for a close inspection that allows for predictions about where the sneaker market is headed. While data typically tells the story of what is selling, it doesn’t give a prediction of what will happen in the next year. I’m always looking ahead to see trends or to figure out why certain trends and movements will stop. This analysis is a compare and contrast that predicts why adidas is going to begin to see a slowdown in the purchase of its footwear.
Why Will adidas Sales Slow Down?
Let’s look at three recent releases. The Tubular Rise, The All Terrain UltraBoost and the Sashiko NMD Pack. Each of these releases are in the premium price range of 160-240.00. adidas built their return to prominence on affordability and dopeness. The classic Stan Smith and Superstar cost 80-100 dollars. The Tubular Shadow also cost 100-110. The extremely popular NMD_R1 without Primeknit comes in at 130.00. These styles have been the best sellers from adidas and the marketing has been on point. The first three shoes listed are all premium takes on popular models. The UltraBOOST has been one of the biggest shoes for adidas and it cost 180.00 dollars. The shoe was the most expensive release from the brand in the GR category. With the new drops from the brand The Tubular series sees a 50.00 dollar price jump (This happened last year with Tubular X which also sat). The UB sees a 40-60.00 price increase to 220-240.00 dollars, and the NMD_R1 PK is a 40.00 dollar increase. A lot of really nice footwear is beginning to sit on shelves. I recently wrote this article discussing how adidas’s “hot” shoes are now going on sale:
The brand had been creating incredible campaigns to coincide with the release of the footwear. This hasn’t been happening in the last six months. it has been happening but the ads have been missing the mark and not as on point. I contribute this to the next issue.
adidas Had To Increase Product To Meet Demand
As Foot Locker and other stores saw the demand for adidas increase, they gave the Three Stripes the coveted front of store merchandising area. Nike Basketball and Nike Running has been moved to the back of the store. In order to take that prime real estate adidas had to deliver more product. This delivery removes the time needed for marketing to build narratives. This increase in product should have been solid for the brand, but the problem is the increase coincided with the Nike and Jordan Brand wall being marked down. The customer options increased at the under 120 price. Jordan Retros at 119.99 became a better option than an NMD at 130.00 or higher. As adidas increased shelf space they didn’t improve the merchandising. The NMD originally shipped with some incredible in store display items and dope YouTube videos. That hasn’t happened this time. adidas increased apparel and stores outfitted mannequins as a replacement for storytelling and that almost never works.
adidas is Now Sitting on Big Releases on their eCommerce platforms
When a moment is taken to compare and contrast releases via eCommerce it becomes evident that a slow down has already begun for adidas. The Sashiko Pack was released on August 17th. The shoe is still available in a full size run via adidas.com and in every retail outlet. A comparable release by Nike, The Flyknit Trainer “Blank Slate” is Sold Out via NDC and SNKRS. The price of that release was 150.00. Now it has to be noted the Flyknit Trainer may have been a more limited release. However a look at other running models via Nike, The VaporMax and Air Max Ultra 97 in various colorways are also Sold Out. When a direct comparison is done to the eCommerce platforms of the two powerhouse websites adidas is begin to show some chinks in the armour. The All Terrain just dropped, but not one size is Sold Out on adidas.com. The Tubular Rise released on September 14th and it’s still available in every size. A comparable shoe from Nike, The Air Zoom Mariah is also sitting. The difference? A quick glance at the webpage and several sizes are Sold Out in the Nike Mariah. An even better comparison is the Nike Zoom Fly which dropped yesterday at the same moment as the All Terrain Pack and of 22 listed sizes, 6 sizes are still available. The All Terrain still has a full size run.
adidas’s growth will ultimately slow down the growth of the company. What will happen is a bump in Q3 and Q4 and in Q1 of 2018 the brand will have sustained for a year and half and the sales will begin to slow. That’s if adidas fails to continue developing the strong storytelling they’ve been doing with each new pack/movement for the brand. They will have to continue to integrate themselves into the community via art shows and maintain their connection to “lifestyle” beyond pushing out more colors and releases to fill that front of store spot. The brand is going to have to realize that playing in the elevated premium price area is not what pushed them forward in the last year. A return to form is needed or the brand will definitely see the bubble burst.