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My Prediction for Nike’s Fiscal Report Today

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I typically don’t want to get so specific on a post, but today is a very important day for Nike. This afternoon at the close of the market Nike will report on its Fiscal First Quarter 2017. This will be the first year the report will not place an emphasis on Futures. The report will cover the period ending November 2016.

What I’m doing is taking my own data and using it to analyze whether the numbers for Nike will be breathtaking enough to drive the shares tomorrow up to the mid to high 50s. If you didn’t catch that, my prediction is that those people hoping for a sub 50 buy are going to be waiting for that moment. Nike will not drop after the report this afternoon. Nike will be able to show how DTC, e-commerce and growth abroad has bolstered the company and how the closing of The Sports Authority is not hurting Nike. I’ve been stating over and over that a lot of the information out there is based on POS and retail numbers for wholesale accounts for Nike, but Nike has been able to do what no other athletic company has ever done. Nike can literally take on inventory (rtvs included) and actually turn a profit on that inventory or liquidate that inventory via its Factory and Clearance Stores and Nike.com. The DTC/e-commerce metric for Nike is now the most important aspect of its future growth.

The question becomes then, “Why am I using my own numbers to justify this if Nike has begun cutting out the middle man?” I’m in the grey area. It allows me to use strategies which mirror the macro. More important my numbers will show that although Adidas is growing Nike remains a force in retail. What are my numbers? I’m going to analyze the period from September 1st to November 30th 2016 and provide a breakdown of what percentage of shoes sold between the Big Three. My math will get a little hard to explain after that.

First a comparison of 2015 to 2016: I saw an increase in the same period from the previous year. This is due to a change in software and some serious financial issues that actually carried over to this year. Ask  me about this whenever you want…

2016  September to November (341 Pairs sold)

Total $60,023.68 344.00 344.00 $60,093.61 343.00 341.00

2015 September to November (247 pairs sold)

Total $39,423.13 240.00 240.00 $40,587.96 247.00 247.00

Adidas is in Black (44 pair) 19% share

ARCH is in Green (3 pair) 1.32% share

Nike is in Blue (173 pair) 76% share

Under Armour is in Red (6 pair) 2.65% share

Shows 226 Pairs sold (data is always +-)

Brand and Shoe Sessions Session Percentage Page Views Page Views Percentage Buy Box Percentage Units Ordered Unit Session Percentage Ordered Product Sales Total Order Items
Nike Zoom KD9(GS) Big Kid’s Basketball Shoes White/University Red 855908-160 1,331 0.27% 1,607 0.25% 12% 7 0.53% $1,119.90 7
Adidas NMD_R1 (Red/Black-White) BB1970 7,265 1.50% 9,041 1.42% 0% 7 0.10% $1,297.92 7
Nike Men’s Air Max 90 Premium Running Shoe 2,594 0.53% 3,227 0.51% 8% 7 0.27% $1,259.93 7
Nike Mens Air Force 1 High ’07 LV8 “Wheat” Flax/Outdoor Green Leather 5,956 1.23% 8,063 1.27% 12% 6 0.10% $1,265.94 6
Nike Jordan Men’s Jordan Academy Basketball Shoe 7,572 1.56% 9,582 1.51% 6% 6 0.08% $1,009.94 6
Adidas Tubular Invader Strap ( Yeezy Inspired) BB1169 (Core Black) 2,173 0.45% 2,820 0.44% 6% 6 0.28% $839.92 6
Nike Kyrie 2 GS (Triple Black) Black/Reflective Silver 4,977 1.03% 6,143 0.97% 3% 6 0.12% $769.94 6
Nike Mens KD 9 Basketball Shoe 3,388 0.70% 4,190 0.66% 9% 6 0.18% $1,169.94 6
Nike Kyrie 2 GS (Mid Navy/Mid Navy-University Gold-Un) Cavaliers Away 714 0.15% 887 0.14% 57% 6 0.84% $821.94 6
Nike Mens Air More Uptempo Black/White Shoes 1,912 0.39% 2,541 0.40% 11% 5 0.26% $1,209.94 5
Nike Men’s Air Berwuda Running Shoe 2,107 0.43% 2,582 0.41% 21% 5 0.24% $739.95 5
Nike Air More Uptempo (Gum) White/White-Bmb-Gm Lght Brwn 1,261 0.26% 1,627 0.26% 6% 5 0.40% $1,039.95 5
Nike Zoom KD 9 (Unlimited) Rio Olympics 878 0.18% 1,076 0.17% 18% 5 0.57% $979.95 5
Nike Men’s Air Max Uptempo Basketball Shoe 716 0.15% 1,133 0.18% 8% 4 0.56% $325.96 4
Nike Men’s Lunar Force 1 Duckboot Boot 3,347 0.69% 4,423 0.70% 5% 4 0.12% $997.95 4
Nike Mens Air Jordan 1 Retro High the Return Black/Gym Red-White, 7 D(M) 869 0.18% 1,121 0.18% 0% 4 0.46% $759.96 4
Nike Men’s Lunar Force 1 Duckboot Boot 14,301 2.95% 18,847 2.96% 1% 4 0.03% $949.96 4
Nike Men’s Zoom KD 9 Basketball Shoe 7,126 1.47% 8,601 1.35% 0% 4 0.06% $784.96 4
Under Armour Men’s Curry 2.5 Basketball Shoe 42,769 8.81% 62,424 9.82% 0% 4 0.01% $694.96 4
Adidas NMR R1 5,308 1.09% 7,043 1.11% 2% 4 0.08% $734.88 4
Nike Grade School Boy’s Kyrie 2 Basketball Shoes Style# 826673-166 942 0.19% 1,157 0.18% 45% 4 0.42% $517.96 4
Adidas NMD_R1 J ”Purple Champs Exclusive” BA7841 324 0.07% 411 0.06% 60% 4 1.23% $699.96 4
Jordan 12 Retro Wool Mens 13,402 2.76% 16,644 2.62% 1% 4 0.03% $1,126.92 4
Adidas D Lillard 2 (Rose City) Red/Black 623 0.13% 786 0.12% 73% 4 0.64% $554.96 4
Air Foamposite One (Maroon) Night Maroon/Maroon-Black-Gum 235 0.05% 292 0.05% 0% 4 1.70% $1,239.96 4
Nike Men’s Air Max 2009 Running Shoe 3,492 0.72% 4,635 0.73% 0% 3 0.09% $579.97 3
Nike Men’s Kyrie 2 Basketball Shoe 6,167 1.27% 8,018 1.26% 0% 3 0.05% $479.97 3
Nike Kyrie 2 GS (Easter) White/Hyper Jade-Urbn Lilac-Bright Mango 3,265 0.67% 4,023 0.63% 8% 3 0.09% $299.97 3
Nike Older Kids Kyrie 2 Red Velvet Basketball Shoe 682 0.14% 876 0.14% 0% 3 0.44% $449.97 3
Nike Kid’s Kyrie 2 GS, WOLF GREY/DARK GREY-OMG BL-CL GREY 2,971 0.61% 3,666 0.58% 17% 3 0.10% $404.97 3
Nike Air More Uptempo (Olympic) White/Metallic Gold-Uni Red-Midnight Navy 406 0.08% 550 0.09% 10% 3 0.74% $669.97 3
Adidas D Lillard 2 (Trailblazers Away) Black/Red 391 0.08% 466 0.07% 78% 3 0.77% $404.97 3
Nike Little Posite Pro (GS) (NIGHT MAROON | BLACK | GUM | LIGHT BROWN) 520 0.11% 625 0.10% 54% 3 0.58% $629.97 3
Nike Kids Roshe One (GS) Running Shoe 8,577 1.77% 11,981 1.88% 1% 2 0.02% $199.98 2
adidas Performance Men’s Crazylight Boost 2.5 Low Basketball Shoe 19,986 4.12% 27,465 4.32% 7% 2 0.01% $274.98 2
Nike KD 8 Premium GS (PBJ) 1,093 0.23% 1,300 0.20% 0% 2 0.18% $339.98 2
Nike Men’s Kyrie 2 EP, RED VELVET CAKE-TEAM RED/PURE PLATINUM-BLACK 1,036 0.21% 1,276 0.20% 12% 2 0.19% $309.98 2
Nike Kyrie 2 GS (Court Deck) Black/Black-Hyper Jade-White 1,135 0.23% 1,442 0.23% 10% 2 0.18% $239.98 2
Adidas Originals Men’s Primeknit NMD_R1 Running Shoes 5,376 1.11% 6,843 1.08% 1% 2 0.04% $339.98 2
Nike Men’s Jordan Reveal Basketball Shoe 5,898 1.22% 7,422 1.17% 2% 2 0.03% $269.98 2
Adidas Men Tubular Invader Strap 8,558 1.76% 11,236 1.77% 0% 2 0.02% $269.98 2
Nike Men’s Air Jordan 11 Retro Low Basketball Shoes 1,756 0.36% 2,262 0.36% 6% 2 0.11% $355.98 2
Air Jordan 1 Retro OG ‘Banned’ 555088 001 (Black/Varsity Red-White) 490 0.10% 750 0.12% 0% 2 0.41% $669.98 2
Nike Air Huarache Run PRM (Milan) Dark Cayenne/Bl Spark-Blk-Conc 475 0.10% 569 0.09% 25% 2 0.42% $359.98 2
Nike Lebron Soldier X GS (Think Pink) Pink Blast/Black-Vivid Pink 1,399 0.29% 1,826 0.29% 36% 2 0.14% $309.98 2
Nike Zoom KD 9 (Birds Of Paradise) Black/Jade Clear-White 2,340 0.48% 2,929 0.46% 1% 2 0.09% $384.98 2
Nike Men’s Kobe XI Elite Low, BLACK SPACE-BLACK/BLACK-BLACK 890 0.18% 1,040 0.16% 20% 2 0.22% $359.98 2
Under Armour Men’s Curry 3 Basketball Shoe 7,059 1.45% 8,802 1.38% 1% 2 0.03% $379.98 2
Nike Mens Kevin Durant KD 9 “Triple Black” Basketball Shoes 83 0.02% 106 0.02% 19% 2 2.41% $247.94 2
4,454 0.92% 5,810 0.91% 0% 1 0.02% $209.99 1
Nike Men’s Kwazi Basketball Shoe 2,249 0.46% 3,000 0.47% 1% 1 0.04% $119.99 1
ARCH CG097III Lightweight Running Trainer (Kickstarter Pack) 3 0.00% 4 0.00% 100% 1 33.33% $39.99 1
3,357 0.69% 4,366 0.69% 2% 1 0.03% $109.99 1
ARCH TR-114 Runner (Limited Edition Suede Pack) 233 0.05% 287 0.05% 67% 1 0.43% $39.99 1
Nike Men’s Air Max Uptempo Basketball Shoe 295 0.06% 391 0.06% 10% 1 0.34% $104.99 1
Nike Air Force 1 High GS Flax (Flax/Flax-Outdoor Green) 1,284 0.26% 1,559 0.25% 4% 1 0.08% $139.99 1
adidas D Lillard 2 Men’s Basketball Shoe 12,535 2.58% 17,830 2.80% 2% 1 0.01% $144.99 1
Air Jordan L/S Fleece Crew (Black Heather/Light Bone, M) 39 0.01% 49 0.01% 96% 1 2.56% $39.99 1
Nike Men’s Kb Mentality II Basketball Shoe 76 0.02% 91 0.01% 0% 1 1.32% $139.99 1
Adidas Originals Tubular X ASW PK (Black/White-Grey) 6,489 1.34% 8,280 1.30% 13% 1 0.02% $199.99 1
Nike Air More Uptempo Black White GS sz 5.5Y 415082-002 Youth 131 0.03% 180 0.03% 73% 1 0.76% $189.99 1
Adidas NMD_R1 Monogram Black S79165 Men’s Size 11 US 550 0.11% 664 0.10% 13% 1 0.18% $189.99 1
Nike Men’s Kobe XI Elite Low (Easter Pack) Drk Grey/Vlt-Brght Mng-Crt Purp 5,882 1.21% 7,217 1.14% 5% 1 0.02% $189.99 1
Nike Men’s Lebron XIII Low EP, BLACK/UNIVERSITY RED-WHITE 32 0.01% 39 0.01% 18% 1 3.12% $209.99 1
Nike Lebron XIII Low Mens Basketball Shoes 2,448 0.50% 3,220 0.51% 3% 1 0.04% $209.99 1
Adidas Tubular Radial (Kids) 689 0.14% 850 0.13% 18% 1 0.15% $109.99 1
Adidas NMD R1 (nomad runner) S79165 Mens size 8 black/white 447 0.09% 578 0.09% 69% 1 0.22% $204.99 1
Adidas NMD_R1 – 10 – S79165 89 0.02% 129 0.02% 88% 1 1.12% $204.97 1
Nike Air More Uptempo Black White GS sz 7Y 415082-002 Youth 78 0.02% 100 0.02% 32% 1 1.28% $209.99 1
Nike Men’s Kobe XI Elite Low, BRAVE BLUE/MTLC SILVER-UNIVERSITY BLUE 1,074 0.22% 1,313 0.21% 0% 1 0.09% $224.99 1
Adidas ZX Flux (Monochrome Pack) Bold Blue BA8368 37 0.01% 56 0.01% 96% 1 2.70% $109.99 1
Nike Kyrie 2 153 0.03% 188 0.03% 0% 1 0.65% $189.99 1
4,222 0.87% 5,454 0.86% 5% 1 0.02% $189.99 1
Nike Mens Air Jordan 8 Retro C&C Light Bone/Metallic Gold Leather 330 0.07% 432 0.07% 8% 1 0.30% $259.99 1
LEBRON XIII LOW Mens sneakers 831925-071 81 0.02% 101 0.02% 0% 1 1.23% $209.99 1
Nike Kids Air More Uptempo (GS) White/Mid Nvy/Mtllc Gld/Unvrsty Basketball Shoe 6.5 Kids US 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0% 1 0.00% $179.99 1
Nike Men’s Jordan Reveal Basketball Shoe 1,188 0.24% 1,530 0.24% 0% 1 0.08% $159.99 1
1,271 0.26% 1,594 0.25% 4% 1 0.08% $139.99 1
3,377 0.70% 4,663 0.73% 0% 1 0.03% $134.99 1
Jordan 5 Retro Mens 3,494 0.72% 4,660 0.73% 1% 1 0.03% $305.99 1
Air Force 180 (Charles Barkley Olympic) White/White-Mid Navy-Mttlc Gold 621 0.13% 765 0.12% 53% 1 0.16% $149.99 1
nike air presto essential -848187-003 154 0.03% 221 0.03% 4% 1 0.65% $89.99 1
Adidas Men Tubular Radial 760 0.16% 957 0.15% 5% 1 0.13% $144.99 1
Nike Lebron Soldier X (Dunkman) White/Cool Grey-Electric Green 27 0.01% 32 0.01% 31% 1 3.70% $109.99 1
Nike Kyrie 2 GS (Parade Championship) White/White-Black-Volt 37 0.01% 48 0.01% 98% 1 2.70% $109.99 1
Air Jordan City Pants (Blue) Size 32 13 0.00% 18 0.00% 94% 1 7.69% $39.99 1
Nike Air Berwuda PRM (Retro Inspired Pack) Wolf Grey/Wolf Grey-Blk-Phntm 226 0.05% 255 0.04% 75% 1 0.44% $169.99 1
ADIDAS NMD_R1 ”CHAMPS EXCLUSIVE” B39506 MEN’S 35 0.01% 44 0.01% 98% 1 2.86% $219.99 1
373 0.08% 464 0.07% 45% 1 0.27% $179.99 1
Nike Zoom KD 9 (Summer Pack) Multicolor/Gum 6,640 1.37% 8,094 1.27% 0% 1 0.02% $199.97 1
Shoes Nike Kobe XI (836183-100) 18 0.00% 26 0.00% 62% 1 5.56% $164.99 1
Nike Kyrie 2 (Australia) Tour Yellow/Black-White 79 0.02% 101 0.02% 86% 1 1.27% $149.99 1
Nike Men’s Air Jordan 3 Retro OG 475 0.10% 584 0.09% 0% 1 0.21% $279.99 1
Air Foamposite Pro (Dr. Doom) Black/Black/White 18 0.00% 20 0.00% 55% 1 5.56% $309.99 1

Now, my inventory typically hovers between 600-1000 pair in stock at all times. The inventory skews heavy with Nike and Nike Basketball so the numbers are going to always favor Nike, but even if I insert a margin to create a balanced proportion I still sell more Nike than Under Armour and Adidas. The profit however is a different story. The Adidas footwear margin for me hovers between 30-60% a pair. The margin on Nike is around 20-40% per pair. I lose money on ARCH (which is why I stopped running it) and Under Armour is around 10-20% a pair.

My decision on what will happen tomorrow when the market opens after Nike’s report tonight, I’m going to stick with my original prediction at the top. Nike shares will climb to 52% and then increase to the mid to high 50s in the following weeks. I’m saying this primarily because I have my stats for this holiday season which I think signals that Nike is gaining its basketball market back. Nike is a beast. The brand controls so much shelf space and so many SKU’s that even at discounted prices they can earn more than the other brands. It will be hard to topple the Swoosh.